Bacon1

Autonomous Vehicle-Testing Dollars Entice States

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Burney Simpson

States are lining up for their share of driverless vehicle research dollars but each has its own approach to getting at the sizzling bacon of business bucks.

In Tennessee, State Sen. Mark Green has introduced legislation that will allow testing of Level 4 autonomous vehicles in the state. Level 4 vehicles can operate without any human intervention.

The Clarksville Republican believes testing will lead auto OEMs to consider manufacturing the vehicles in the state. Green emphasized the economic benefits of the technology in an interview with The Leaf-Chronicle.

“Because these companies that are going to manufacture them, and create all those jobs, are going to go where they can test their vehicles,” said Green.

California, Florida, Michigan, Nevada and the District of Columbia have enacted legislation making it legal to test autonomous vehicles. Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe last year proclaimed the state would allow the testing.

Green’s bill, SB 1561, is scheduled to be heard by the Senate Transportation Committee on Monday, February 1. A similar bill, HB 1564, has been introduced in the Tennessee House by Rep. Mike Carter, an Ooltewah Republican.

Green’s proposal would require a human operator for any autonomous vehicle being tested, and impose a use tax of one cent per mile for an autonomous vehicle with two axles, and 2.6 cents a mile for those with more than two axles.

MASSACHUSETTS MEETS

In Massachusetts, several agencies and large cities are working to make self-driving vehicles legal and ensure the state becomes a research center on the technology.

Toyota has already invested $50 million in a research facility it will operate with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Meanwhile, Boston is seeking $50 million from the US DOT to integrate self-driving vehicles in its borders, and the city of Somerville has partnered with Audi to test self-parking cars.

On February 9 the state’s Department of Transportation and the Office of Housing and Economic Development are scheduled to meet with Google, Tesla, MIT, Toyota, Audi, and Uber, to discuss opportunities for self-driving vehicles, according to the Boston Herald.

MARYLAND MEANDERS

Maryland appears to be less ambitious. It is scheduled to consider matching bills in its state House and Senate that call for $50,000 annually to fund a task force that will study the issue of self-driving vehicles.

The task force would work this year and next, and report its findings by 2018, for a total cost of $100,000.

In the House, Del. Pamela Beidle introduced HB 8, and Sen. Andrew Serafini introduced SB 126. Beidle’s proposal was scheduled to be heard today, and the Senate Judicial Proceedings Committee is to consider SB 126 next Tuesday.

The problem here is that the same two legislators proposed similar bills last year, but called for $100,000 per year in funding. Beidle’s proposal sailed through the House but the Senate shot down Serafini’s measure.

Photo of Bacon by Martin Cathrae, 2008.

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D20 in a Rebound as Renesas Jumps

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The Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index, the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 Index all saw a rebound last week. With a 7.8 percent increase to ¥772, Renesas (TYO:6732) was this week’s largest gainer in the D20. Acquisition rumors continue to swirl around Renesas as the microcontroller industry consolidates, driving prices up.

The D20 outperformed the Dow and S&P by adding 3.07 points, or 2.24 percent, to close the week at 140.02. The Dow moved up 0.7 percent to finish at 16093.51 while the S&P added 1.4 percent to end the week at 1906.9 halting a three week plunge for all three indexes.

Last week the D20 had 16 gainers, three losers and Volvo AB (VOLVY) remained unchanged.  This week’s three losers were Delphi (DLPH), down 3.6 percent, Tesla (TSLA), shedding 1.2 percent, and General Motors (GM), dropping 1 percent.

Graphic by IHS Inc.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

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40% of Consumers Would Pay Extra for Driverless Tech

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Burney Simpson

More than 40 percent of Americans would pay extra for a self-driving vehicle, though more than half don’t want to invest another dime in such technology, according to new research from the University of Texas at Austin.

A study found that 41.3 percent of Americans were willing to pay (WTP) extra for Level 4 autonomous vehicle technology, while 58.7 percent did not want to pay anything. Level 4 technology means the vehicle can operate completely autonomously without any driver assistance, under definitions created by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

Those willing to pay extra for Level 4 technology would pay an average of $14,589.

The study was conducted by Kara M. Kockelman, an engineering professor at UT, and graduate research assistant Prateek Bansal.

Kockelman presented her findings “Forecasting American’s Long-Term Adoption of Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Technologies” (PDF) at the TRB 95th Annual Meeting in Washington, D.C.

A similar percentage of Americans were willing to pay more for Level 3 vehicle technology, though not as much, according to the findings. A Level 3 autonomous vehicle is in control virtually all time while still requiring some human intervention. The Google car is an example of Level 3 technology, NHTSA reported.

More than 44 percent would pay extra for a Level 3 vehicle, while 55.4 percent would not pay a dime for it.

Those willing to pay extra for the technology would pay an average of $5,551.

The study used data from a survey of 2,167 Americans, reviewing their interest in connected and autonomous vehicle technology and their annual vehicle spending decisions.

The researchers looked into consumer interest in adopting autonomous technology under eight different scenarios, including a drop in price from 5 percent to 10 percent, a rise in willingness to pay, and changes in regulations.

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D20 Index Drops Dramatically

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Driverless Transportation

By losing 10.2 percent of its value last week, the Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index suffered its largest single week loss since its inception in August 2014. The D20 lost 16.49 points to end a disastrous week at 145.26. Neither the Dow Industrials nor the S&P 500 fared much better. The Dow lost 423.62 points, or 6.2 percent of its value, to close at 16346.45, and the S&P 500 lost 6 percent of its value to finish at 1922.03.

China halted trading in its stock market several times last week, causing set-backs in the world’s major stock markets. The markets are concerned that the recent weakness in China’s economy will drive the global economy down. The D20 was not immune as all twenty stocks lost value last week, 12 of them losing more than 10 percent of their value. The stock that lost the least value this week was Renesas Electronics of Japan (TSE: 6723) with its share price dipping from 770¥ to 744¥, a 3.3 percent loss.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

Taking the next step in its Blueprint for Mobility, Ford today – in conjunction with the University of Michigan and State Farm® – revealed a Ford Fusion Hybrid automated research vehicle that will be used to make progress on future automated driving and other advanced technologies.

Study: Driverless Cars to Be 15% of Global Auto Sales By 2030, and How Ride-Sharing Companies Can Actually Help Grow Auto Market

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Jennifer van der Kleut

One consulting firm that studies auto trends has no doubts about the promises that several car companies have made recently-in particular, that fully autonomous cars will be experiencing mass-market sales by 2030 or possibly earlier.

The firm, McKinsey & Company, has released findings from a new study on several auto trends, one of the biggest of which says that they believe 15 percent of global auto sales will consist of fully autonomous cars by 2030. Before that, the firm predicts mass-market sales will begin around 2020-2022.

Another big declaration of the study touches upon the impact of ride-sharing companies like Uber and Lyft, as well as any potential future ventures.

The study predicts that in the near-term, ridesharing companies will slow the annual growth of global auto sales, from the current average of 3.6 percent down to 2 percent.

However, in the long-term, the study says that growth will rebound, and that ridesharing companies will actually help it grow by a whopping 30 percent by 2030. By 2050, McKinsey & Company predicts that 1 in 3 cars sold globally will be a shared vehicle.

The study also touches upon the rate of adoption of electric vehicles. Thanks to the efforts like those of Ford, which is investing millions in electric vehicle infrastructure such as charging stations, McKinsey & Company predicts 15 to 20 percent of all new auto sales will be of electric cars by 2030.

Read more on McKinsey & Company’s full report by news outlets such as Detroit News, Bloomberg and CNBC.

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GM Invests Half a Billion in Lyft for Autonomous Car Network

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Jennifer van der Kleut

Tesla, Uber, Google and (maybe) Apple have some competition hovering.

News outlets pounced on the story Monday, Jan. 4 — the first official business day of 2016 — when the announcement was made that General Motors was investing $500 million in ride-hailing app Lyft, with a view toward forming a future autonomous car network.

Lyft is Uber’s lesser-known twin, and after its latest round of $1 billion in new funding, San Francisco-based Lyft is valued at around $4- to $5-billion. Lyft says it currently completes around 700 million rides per month across 190 cities worldwide. Uber, on the other hand, is worth about 14 times more, or $62.5 billion, and operates in hundreds of cities across 68 countries.

As Forbes points out, in the short-term, the Lyft-GM partnership will function similarly to the partnership Lyft already has with rental car company Hertz, which allows Lyft drivers to temporarily rent Hertz cars in certain markets to drive Lyft customers and make money.

In the long-term, Lyft president John Zimmer told Forbes that they envision a partnership combining GM’s cars with software that allows the car to drive itself, and connects Lyft customers with cars and transportation, among other elements.

The New York Times reports that the new partnership also means GM president Daniel Ammann will join Lyft’s board of directors.

Whereas some might say they see companies like Lyft as an automaker’s biggest threat-since GM’s model is built upon selling individual cars to individual riders, and autonomous transportation seriously threatens the entire idea of car ownership-GM’s Ammann says the automaker is thinking proactively, and wants to be part of the new transportation model of the future.

“We think there’s going to be more change in the world of mobility in the next five years than there has been in the last 50,” Ammann told the New York Times. “From a GM perspective, we view this as much more of an opportunity than a threat.”

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Sell Off for Driverless (D20) Index

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The Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index ended the year on a slight down note, losing 1.28 points, or 0.8 percent, to finish 2015 at 161.75. With only five gainers and 15 losers, the D20 matched the S&P 500’s 0.8 percent loss and was only slightly worse than the Dow which lost 0.7 percent. The S&P 500 finished 2015 at 2043.94 while the Dow ended the year at 17425.03.

Tesla (TSLA) was the D20’s big winner this week, gaining 4.1 percent to finish at $240.01 per share. Anticipation around Tesla’s upcoming 4Q vehicle delivery numbers drove its share price up last week.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

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Samsung Joining Autonomous Car Race

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A new company is joining the long list of those taking at a stab at the autonomous car business — Samsung.

Perhaps best known for flatscreen TVs and smartphones, news outlets are reporting that Samsung is launching a new division of its business aimed at manufacturing car parts for bigger automakers.

Engadget reports that the first project will be in-car infotainment systems, and that Samsung will eventually work its way up to car parts that enable autonomous driving. Engadget adds that many smartphone components also lend themselves to autonomous driving, making Samsung a credible player.

Both Motley Fool and Engadget point out that Samsung actually launched its own auto division, Samsung Motors, back in 1994. However, the market dive of 1997 forced Samsung to sell to Renault. Samsung reportedly still owns a 19-percent stake in that division.

CNBC points out that Samsung’s mobile phone division has plunged from over 60 percent to now just over 30 percent, and speculates the move may be fueled by a need to find new areas for growth. It also points out that Samsung’s biggest rival, LG Electronics, announced a deal in 2013 to manufacture car parts for General Motors’ electric Chevrolet Volt.