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D20 Stock Index week ending October 23, 2015

GM Takes D20 Over 160

Driverless Transportation

The Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index broke the 160 barrier for the first time ever, finishing at 160.77 last week. For the fourth consecutive week, the D20’s 2.9 percent gain outpaced the 2.5 percent gain in the Dow Jones Industrials and the 2.1 percent rise in the S&P 500 Index. The D20 saw 17 stocks finishing higher while three declined.

This week’s largest loser was Tesla (TSLA) down 7.9 percent on news that Consumer Reports held back its rating on the Model S owing to reliability concerns. Tesla finished the week at $209.09, its lowest point since mid-April 2015. On the driverless front, Tesla announced the release of its Autopilot update for the Model S. The reviews of the software update for existing cars are mostly positive, but some users have complained that the Model S takes turns too fast in Autopilot mode.

D20 Stock Index versus Dow Jones Index versus S&P weekly change ending week of October 23, 2015On the bright side, General Motors (GM) posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain by adding 8.5 percent and ending the week at $35.95 a share. Most of the jump was due to GM’s surprisingly positive third-quarter earnings announcement. GM has adopted a quiet but aggressive plan to develop “self-driving” cars.

Other D20 stocks that put in strong showings last week were Alphabet (GOOG) up 6.0 percent, Continental (CTTAY) up 6.9 percent, Magna (MGA) up 6.0 percent, and Valeo (VLEEY) up 6.2 percent.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks

D20 Stock Index

Driverless Stocks Rise for Three Straight Weeks

Driverless Transportation

For the third straight week, the Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index outpaced both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index by gaining 1.3 percent and finishing at 156.19. The Dow added 0.8 percent to end the week at 12215.97 while the S&P 500 finished at 2033.11 up 0.9 percent. For the D20 this week gainers outnumbered losers 13 to seven.

D20 Stock Index, Dow Jones, and S&P weekly change ending October 16, 2015

After a one week reprieve, Volkswagen (VLKPY) returned to the losing side, dropping 4.6 percent and ending the week at $23.07. Volkswagen’s credit rating dropped and management shake-ups surfaced as the emissions scandal continues to plague the company.

The price of crude oil has been rising in the last month and a half and that has been a boon to BYD Co. (BYDDY), the Chinese electric vehicle and battery manufacturer. BYD had its sixth consecutive weekly advance and closed Friday up 10.7 percent. Between September 4 and October 16 BYD rose from $7.70 to $12.45 a share, a 62 percent increase. NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) also rose consistently during that time, ending last week up 6.9 percent to finish at $27.86.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

D20 Stock Index week ending September 25, 2015

Volkswagen Drives D20 Down

Driverless Transportation

Driven by Volkswagen’s huge loss the Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index tumbled 5.8 percent and ended last week at 142.05.  The loss was broad based as D20 losers outnumbered gainers 18 to two. On news that the global economy is slowing, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 lost value last week although less than the D20 Index. The Dow ended the week at 1631.67, down 0.4 percent while the S&P 500 finished at 1931.34, down 1.4 percent.

A 34.3 percent drop in Volkswagen’s stock price was responsible for over a quarter of the D20 loss for the week. Volkswagen’s ADR (VLKPY) price hit a 52-week low of $21.87 on Monday, less than half its D20 Index high of $54.02 it hit just over six months last March. The automaker’s woes continue to be driven by the diesel pollution testing scandal.  Its CEO has resigned and shareholder lawsuits have arisen.  Volkswagen’s current financial crisis will curtail its ability to invest in driverless technologies as it tries to weather the government fines, shareholder lawsuits, and negative market impact of this scandal.

The lone Chinese company in the D20 Index, BYD Company (BYDDY), shone brightly this week rising almost 6 percent and finishing at $9.91. At 6.16 percent, it is now is the largest component of the D20 Index. BYD has added 17.4 percent to its ADR price since August 28 when the basis for the D20 Index was changed.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

D20 Stock Index week ending September 18, 2015

D20 Gainers Outnumber Losers for the Week with TomTom in the Lead

Driverless Transportation

Two consecutive weekly gains have pushed the Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index just over the 150 mark.  The D20 Index outpaced both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 by gaining 2.42 points or 1.63 percent to close the week at 150.83.  The Dow lost 0.3 percent of its value while the S&P gave back 0.15 percent.  In the D20, gainers outnumbered losers sixteen to four.

One of the D20’s newest members, TomTom (TOM2), led the advance this week with a 7.69 percent gain in value.  TomTom’s rise was due to a combination of factors.  First, since Nokia’s sale of its Here! mapping business, rumors continue to swirl around the prospect that TomTom will do the same.  Second, TomTom announced strong year to date sales results.  Right behind TomTom was BYD Company (BYDDY) who gained 6.98 percent.

The D20 loss leaders for the week were Volvo (VOLVY) who lost 4.30 percent of its value and Volkswagen (VLKPY) who lost 4.62 percent amid allegations that they cheated on their periodic state emissions testing for some of their diesel powered cars.

Since the D20 changed its measurement method on August 28th, 2015, the top three gainers have been:

The three biggest losers have been:

  • Mobileye (MBLY) – down 14.02%
  • Renesas (TYO:6732) – down 7.49%
  • Volkswagen (VLKPY) – down 4.83%

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

D20Sept11b

Growing Driverless Stock Index (D20) Reflects Dynamic Industry

Driverless Transportation

We have some exciting changes in the Driverless Transportation D20 Index to announce. First off, we are replacing three companies in the index and making the D20 more international in scope. We also changed the basis for our calculation of the D20 Index, moving to a dollar averaged approach.

The three new stocks in the D20 are:

  1.  Amsterdam-based TomTom (TOM2) is traded on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. It replaces Nokia (NOK) which is selling its Here mapping division, its only business involved in driverless or connected vehicles. TomTom, known for its popular aftermarket GPS turn-by-turn directional devices for cars, has three units that are involved with driverless technology – the auto unit provides components such as maps, traffic and software to auto OEMs; the licensing group leverages maps, traffic and navigation content and services; and the telematics unit is dedicated to fleet management and vehicle telematics.
  2. Ontario, Canada-based Magna International (MGA) is traded on the NYSE. It replaces the lightly-traded KVH Inc. (KVHI), a business that primarily delivers ISP services for hotels, resorts and ships. Magna has a large and growing electronics division which focuses on driver assistance systems, as well as systems to support power-train electrification. It manufactures electronic, electromechanical and mechatronic products, and provides software and hardware development.
  3. Tokyo-based Renesas Electronics (TYO: 6723) trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It replaces Iteris (ITI), a lightly-traded firm that provides intelligent transportation systems for municipalities. Renesas was formed through a merger of NEC Electronics Corp., and Renesas Technology Corp., (a joint venture of Hitachi and Mitsubishi Electric). Renesas Electronics is a semiconductor manufacturer that designs, develops, manufactures, sells and services microcontrollers for the automotive industry.

The D20 Index now has companies — TomTom in Amsterdam and Renesas in Tokyo — with stocks that are primarily listed on non-US exchanges and use foreign currencies for prices. To calculate the D20 and include these stocks we convert the non-US stock prices (Euros and Japanese Yen) to US dollars using a current conversion ratio. The values were: Euro – currently 1.136 dollars per Euro; and Japanese Yen – currently .00829 dollars per Yen.

CALCULATING THE INDEX

We have changed the basis for calculating the D20 Index. Previously, the value of the D20 was calculated by using one share of stock from each of the 20 stocks in the index. With the new dollar-averaged approach we track the value of $1,000 invested in each of the 20 stocks. And on August 28, 2015 we started with roughly a total of $20,000 invested equally in the 20 stocks ($1,000 per company) in the D20 Index.

 

Name

 

Symbol

(As of 8/28/2015)
Share Price Shares Currency Conversion Value
BlackBerry Ltd BBRY $             7.37 135.690 1.000 $           1,000
BYD COMPANY LTD ADR BYDDY $             8.44 118.480 1.000 $           1,000
Continental AG (ADR) CTTAY $           42.86 23.330 1.000 $           1,000
Daimler AG (USA) DDAIF $           80.70 12.390 1.000 $           1,000
Delphi Automotive PLC DLPH $           75.35 13.270 1.000 $           1,000
Denso Corp (ADR) DNZOY $           22.69 44.070 1.000 $           1,000
Ford Motor Company F $           13.73 72.830 1.000 $           1,000
General Motors Company GM $           29.01 34.470 1.000 $           1,000
Google Inc GOOG $       630.38 1.586 1.000 $           1,000
Magna MGA $           49.23 20.313 1.000 $           1,000
Mobileye NV Amsterdam MBLY $           56.42 17.724 1.000 $           1,000
Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. (ADR) NSANY $           18.31 54.620 1.000 $           1,000
NVIDIA Corporation NVDA $           22.73 43.990 1.000 $           1,000
Tesla Motors Inc TSLA $       248.48 4.025 1.000 $           1,000
TomTom TOM2 €             8.97 100.010 1.115 $           1,000
Visteon Corp VC $       100.49 9.950 1.000 $           1,000
VALEO SA (ADR) VLEEF $           63.66 15.710 1.000 $           1,000
Volkswagen AG (ADR) VLKPY $           38.32 26.100 1.000 $           1,000
Volvo AB (ADR) VOLVY $           10.94 91.410 1.000 $           1,000
Renesas TYO:6732 ¥       708.00 168.008 0.00841 $           1,000

Why the change? We found that with the one-share approach the stocks with the highest prices, i.e., Google, trading over $600, and Tesla, over $250, could swing the D20 wildly with just a small change in their pricing. The dollar-average approach means each company in the D20 now makes up about five percent of the index’s underlying value.

Why didn’t the D20 Index change radically when we switched the basis? We have always used a divisor with the D20 Index, and it started as 10.0. That meant we added up all the stock prices at the close of the trading day and divided by 10. To switch to the new dollar-average approach we changed the divisor so the new D2’s underlying value would be the same as the old D2. So on August 28, 2015 we used the closing stock prices to find the value of each of the two D20s, then adjusted the divisor for the dollar-averaged D20 so it had the same value as the old D20. The new divisor is 134.27296.

On September 4 we switched over to the revised D20 Index with the three new stocks and the new divisor.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

AutoInsure1

Pay-Per-Mile Auto Insurer May Link to Driverless Car Future

Burney Simpson

I use my car about an hour a day. Why do I need to insure it for 24 hours?

That question sets the business premise for Metromile, a pay-per-mile auto insurance firm that charges fees based on the driver’s use of his or her vehicle. Metromile claims that consumers that drive less than 10,000 miles a year can save, on average, $500 annually on their insurance with its program.

Now available in California, Illinois, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Washington, Metromile is an offshoot of the sharing or on-demand economy, as exemplified by such firms as Car2Go (a Daimler subsidiary) and transportation provider Uber. Both of them cater to consumers that don’t own cars but like to use them on an as-needed basis.

San Francisco-based Metromile may be a harbinger of the way auto insurance will be sold in the world of driverless vehicles, which some experts believe could happen within about 10 years. At that time many consumers will opt for driverless ride-sharing services where they don’t own the vehicle that gets them to work and shopping.

Presumably there will still be an occasional accident in those vehicles, and a need for insurance. After all, Google reports its driverless Koala cars have had 16 accidents during 2 million-some miles of tests.

So who is held responsible — the ‘driver’ or person sitting in the vehicle — when the accident occurs? Or is it the automaker that creates and/or installs the autonomous technology in the vehicle; or the ride-sharing firm? (Which just may be Uber.)

Accident responsibility remains an open question. But it will be interesting to watch Metromile as it attempts to navigate into the world of driverless vehicles.

METROMILE BRASS TACKS

Metromile gives its pay-per-mile costumers a free Pulse device that must be plugged into the diagnostic port (OBD-II) of their vehicle. The consumer also must download a Metromile app from either the Apple store or from Google Play. The device tracks miles traveled, and certain vehicle performance data and sends the information to the customer’s smartphone and to Metromile.

Metromile charges a monthly base rate, along with the per-mile fee. These charges depend on driver age, driving history, credit history, the vehicle and other factors. Per-mile fees stop after 150 miles a day (250 in Washington) so the customer can take an occasional long trip without getting hit with a big charge.

The Pulse doesn’t track driver behavior like hard stops or speed, according to Metromile. It does offer a mapping service and can be used to find your car. In Chicago, Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco, it has even been programmed to know when street sweeping will occur so the driver can move the car before getting a ticket.

Its insurance policies are sold by Metromile Insurance Services LLC and written by insurers in the National General Insurance Group.

Seed funders NEA, Index Ventures, First Round Capital, and SV Angel put up $4 million to get Metromile started, according to a 2013 TechCrunch story. That year, another $10 million was added to the pot by existing funders along with AmTrust Ventures, Allen & Company, and Felicis Ventures.

Photo of Car Insurance by Pictures of Money, 2014.

TUK-Automotive September 2015--Insurance

Insurance Telematics USA 2015

The Insurance Telematics USA Conference & Exhibition is the largest and most informative forum for executives from across the connected car and motor insurance industries.

Register

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Join 800+ senior decision makers at The Insurance Telematics USA 2015 Conference & Exhibition (2-3 September at the Radisson Aqua Blu, Chicago) to take your place at the cutting edge of the motor insurance evolution.

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  • 800+ Senior Attendees From Across North America: This is only event to gather a truly nationwide audience. Make partnerships across the country to prepare your UBI business for mass deployment – 55% of attendees are from insurance carriers

 

D20Aug28b

Broad Based Bounce Back for the D20 Index

Driverless Transportation

The Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index outpaced the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 Index as they all rebounded sharply from last week’s pummeling. It was a broad-based bounce back as gainers outnumbered losers 17 to three, and the D20 added 5.4 points to finish the week at 148.95. The D20 Index’s gain of 3.8 percent tripled the Dow’s 1.1 percent gain and quadrupled the 0.9 percent gain of the S&P 500.

D20Compare1The D20 Index’s largest percentage gainer was Mobileye (MBLY), adding 8.9 percent to its value and ending the week at $56.42. Google (GOOG) and Tesla Motors (TSLA) were large absolute gainers this week adding $17.90 and $17.71 respectively.

The devaluation of the Yuan by China continues to hurt General Motors (GM) making it the largest percentage and absolute loser this week. It fell $0.59 or nearly 2 percent to finish the week at $29.01.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

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