Driverless Cars a Decade Away: MotorWeek’s Davis

Consumer acceptance of autonomous autos will be slow and widespread use may be a decade away, according to experts at a conference held this week by the U.S. Department of Energy in Washington, D.C.

John Davis, executive producer, creator and host of the long-running MotorWeek TV show, told the conference that testing of the technology could go on for quite a while.

Autonomous systems “may be a decade away, maybe longer,” said Davis. “The public is all charged up about something that may be a ways off. We need to temper that enthusiasm.”

Davis cautioned regulators from forcing autonomous safety equipment on car buyers. For instance, consumers did not warm to airbags for years, said Davis. 

The recent fatal crash involving a Tesla vehicle using its Autopilot automated-driving system is raising more concerns, said Davis.

Davis spoke and led a panel at the 2016 Sustainable Transportation Summit, held by the DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). The summit primarily focused on electric vehicles and efforts to increase their use but autonomous technology interested many in the crowd.

GM’s Mary Beth Stanek wouldn’t commit on the consumer acceptance of electric vehicles outfitted with autonomous systems. She noted consumers generally look for proven technology when buying a car.

“Consumers don’t want too big a change from what they are doing today. If they like an internal combustion engine, they will stay with that,” said Stanek, director of vehicle technologies and government relations.

However, Stanek predicted that people will turn to autonomous and electric vehicles as mapping systems improve and communications technology like DSRC and 5G become widespread.

BRINGING FUEL ECONOMY

For that matter, “self-driving vehicles could lead to fuel conservation, they could force us to become smoother drivers (with) less stop and start,” said Davis. “It will take a while for the concept of not driving like a maniac to take hold,  (but it) will bring more fuel economy and people will like that.”

The view of Davis runs counter to that of auto OEMs Toyota and BMW with each pledging to have an automated or autonomous vehicle on the road by 2020 or 2021.

That coming-soon theme was echoed at the conference by Ford’s Ken Washington. Ford is testing autonomous vehicles in Michigan and Arizona, and soon in California, said Washington, vice president of research and advanced engineering.

Ford is developing SAE Level 4 High Automation vehicles, where the vehicle navigates itself — and its passengers — safely to their destination.

“In the next four years this is a reality that is very near,” said Washington.

One autonomous technology proponent at the conference was Chunka Mui, a business strategy consultant and author of “Driverless Cars: Trillions are Up for Grabs.”

Mui took a bottom-line approach, pointing to a study by Barclays that found that a driverless electric vehicle providing a car-share service could reduce operating cost-per-mile by as much as 80 percent compared with a standard vehicle.

And some locales offer rich ground for autonomous vehicles, Mui said. For example, the congested island-nation of Singapore is now testing driverless cabs developed by MIT-offshoot nuTonomy.

The Singapore government is supporting the concept, the population there is aging, the test is in a dense, high-population area, the country seeks to be a ‘knowledge capital of the world’ and nuTonomy has been preparing for the test for years, said Mui.

AN ALL-ELECTRIC ISLAND

Along those same lines, new technology investor Mark Platshon encourages the US to think creatively as it promotes electric and autonomous vehicles.

“I’d like to see Hawaii as a test bed. An all renewable (energy), all electric island,” said Platshon, managing director of The Autonomous World Fund. “Make autonomous vehicles a top priority.”

Platshon was on a panel led by Mui that also featured executives from Federal Express and Local Motors.

Federal Express is looking to reduce costs for its ground-vehicles, according to Russell Musgrove, managing director of global vehicles.

Autonomous vehicles show promise because FedEx research has found that the driver accounts for 15 percent of fuel use, said Musgrove.

The package delivery firm would like government permission to operate longer trucks so it could take more trucks off the road, and it is trying to find a manufacturer that can deliver a mini-fleet of electric trucks.

“We now have 110,000 vehicles worldwide. We need electric vehicles. We tried to get that first 100. We can’t find a manufacturer that will meet our specs. People think we can just go to an EV store,” said Musgrove. “This is a niche space, manufacturers can’t make enough money making this.“

Mui suggested that maybe Local Motors could help. The firm custom creates vehicles using 3D printers and other equipment. It recently launched Olli, a driverless shuttle that carries about a dozen passengers.

Local is the opposite of Detroit’s assembly line style of mass production, said Justin Fishkin, chief strategy officer.

“We make vehicles locally. It takes about eight weeks to build and put on the road,” said Fishkin. “Our cars have about 500 pieces while (auto OEMs) use about 50,000 and about 500 suppliers are involved.”

Musgrove and Fishkin agreed to talk after the conference.

Photo: Chevy’s electric Bolt.