We truly believe that Driverless Transportation is going to revolutionize society as we know it. From our perspective the question is when not if. In our last blog entry, we gave our predictions for what will happen in the next year or so. In this entry we want to try to guess in what year (if ever) a series of events will take place.
| John | Manuel | Rick | Shawn | ||
| 1 | Virginia will allow the testing of driverless vehicles. |
2015 |
2015 |
2014 |
2015 |
| 2 | All 4 of us at DriverlessTransportation.com have ridden in a driverless vehicle level 3 or higher (Levels are defined at the end). |
2014 |
2015 |
2014 |
2014 |
| 3 | First NHTSA Level 3 car available to the public |
2017 |
2020 |
2017 |
2018 |
| 4 | First NHTSA Level 4 car available to the public |
2021 |
2023 |
2025 |
2022 |
| 5 | More than 25% of new cars sold are Level 3 |
2020 |
2030 |
2020 |
2021 |
| 6 | More than 25% of new cars sold are Level 4 |
2025 |
2031 |
2025 |
2025 |
| 7 | More than 50% of new cars sold are Level 4 |
2027 |
2035 |
2029 |
2028 |
| 8 | First Coast to Coast Driverless Vehicle trip |
2015 |
2017 |
2015 |
2020 |
| 9 | First City Wide Robo-Taxi Service (no driver) |
2021 |
2020 |
2019 |
2022 |
| 10 | Dedicated driverless roads or lanes become available (i.e. cars with drivers can’t use them) |
2024 |
2035 |
2022 |
2025 |
| 11 | First nationwide driverless trucking service |
2024 |
2040 |
2022 |
2025 |
| 12 | Food delivery is available with a driverless car |
2026 |
2020 |
2022 |
2026 |
| 13 | A fatal accident happens involving a driverless vehicle (level 3 or above) |
2016 |
2018 |
2016 |
2015 |
The US Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has designated four levels of Vehicle Automation. These are:
- No Automation - The driver is in complete and sole control of the primary vehicle controls.
- Function Specific Automation - Automation at this level involves one or more specific control functions; if multiple functions are automated they operate independently from each other. Examples of this include cruise control and anti-lock brakes so most new cars sold today are Level 1.
- Combined Function Automation - This level involves automation of at least two primary control functions designed to work in unison to relieve the driver of control of those functions. Vehicles at this level of automation can utilize a shred authority when the drive cedes active primary control in certain limited driving situations.
- Limited Self-Driving Automation - Vehicles at this level of automation enable the drive to cede full control of all safety-critical function under certain traffic or environmental condition and in those conditions to rely heavily on the vehicle to monitor for changes in those conditions requiring transition back to driver control.
- Full Self-Driving Automation - The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving function and monitor roadway conditions.
See the NHTSA’s Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles for more information.
So what do you think? Let us know.
