We truly believe that Driverless Transportation is going to revolutionize society as we know it. From our perspective the question is when not if.  In our last blog entry, we gave our predictions for what will happen in the next year or so.  In this entry we want to try to guess in what year (if ever) a series of events will take place.

		John	Manuel	Rick	Shawn
1	Virginia will allow the testing of driverless vehicles.	2015	2015	2014	2015
2	All 4 of us at DriverlessTransportation.com have ridden in a driverless vehicle level 3 or higher (Levels are defined at the end).	2014	2015	2014	2014
3	First NHTSA Level 3 car available to the public	2017	2020	2017	2018
4	First NHTSA Level 4 car available to the public	2021	2023	2025	2022
5	More than 25% of new cars sold are Level 3	2020	2030	2020	2021
6	More than 25% of new cars sold are Level 4	2025	2031	2025	2025
7	More than 50% of new cars sold are Level 4	2027	2035	2029	2028
8	First Coast to Coast Driverless Vehicle trip	2015	2017	2015	2020
9	First City Wide Robo-Taxi Service (no driver)	2021	2020	2019	2022
10	Dedicated driverless roads or lanes become available (i.e. cars with drivers can’t use them)	2024	2035	2022	2025
11	First nationwide driverless trucking service	2024	2040	2022	2025
12	Food delivery is available with a driverless car	2026	2020	2022	2026
13	A fatal accident happens involving a driverless vehicle (level 3 or above)	2016	2018	2016	2015

The US Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)  has designated four levels of Vehicle Automation.  These are:

1. No Automation - The driver is in complete and sole control of the primary vehicle controls.
2. Function Specific Automation - Automation at this level involves one or more specific control functions; if multiple functions are automated they operate independently from each other.  Examples of this include cruise control and anti-lock brakes so most new cars sold today are Level 1.
3. Combined Function Automation - This level involves automation of at least two primary control functions designed to work in unison to relieve the driver of control of those functions.  Vehicles at this level of automation can utilize a shred authority when the drive cedes active primary control in certain limited driving situations.
4. Limited Self-Driving Automation - Vehicles at this level of automation enable the drive to cede full control of all safety-critical function under certain traffic or environmental condition and in those conditions to rely heavily on the vehicle to monitor for changes in those conditions requiring transition back to driver control.
5. Full Self-Driving Automation - The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving function and monitor roadway conditions.

See the NHTSA’s Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles for more information.

So what do you think?  Let us know.

Driverless cars are sure to revolutionize society as we know it. We at DriverlessTransportation.com are excited about the changes that will come from this new technology, and we believe that every single person’s life will change.

It’s particularly interesting to actually envision a world without drivers. What will it look like? What will it sound like? How will my everyday routine change? In addition, it’s interesting to think about the trajectory of this industry as a whole, and what will happen with time.

We, as a team, each decided it would be fun to make our own predictions about what we see happening in the next year (or so).  These are listed below. We cast short-term predictions about the technology, the business, the societal impact, and the legal ramifications that come with the introduction of driverless transportation.

If you’re interested, leave a comment with your own predictions. We’ll look back next October and see how we did.

In our next blog, we’ll try some longer term predictions.

Rick

1. Google hits a Million Miles on its driverless fleet.
2. Tesla announces a schedule for driverless vehicle before 2018.
3. One of the major Automakers (other than Toyota) announces a significant Partnership with Google.

John

1. A driverless car will have an accident.
2. A bill to allow driverless cars will be initiated in Virginia (and 3 other states).
3. Tesla and Google will announce that they are working together.
4. I will ride in a driverless car.

Manuel

1. Major players in driverless technologies will turn to military contractors to harden and protect their systems from cyber attacks.
2. Government legislation will step in again and fund the automotive industry supporting driverless transportation citing employment (job development) as its primary goal.
3. One of the major computing hardware companies will develop a new system of systems backplane allowing the automotive industry to standardize how driverless technologies will be implemented.
4. Legislation will be passed that endorses and legalizes only one of the driverless technologies.

 Shawn

1. Two driverless cars will crash and the occupants will want to sue. This will spark a public legal issue of who is liable when no one is driving.
2.  An article on Driverless Transportation will make the front page of the Washington Post and/or a segment on 60 Minutes.
3. I will see someone riding in a driverless car at Stanford.