Fleets Will SAEV Bucks with Driverless Electrics: Study

Burney Simpson

A fleet of driverless electric vehicles could be operated for 42 to 49 cents per mile, very competitive with costs per-mile for car-sharing services, and close to operating costs for private vehicle owners.

Running a fleet of these SAEVs, or Shared Autonomous Electric Vehicles, would be “significantly cheaper than on-demand driver-operated transportation services” like a traditional cab company or Uber.

These conclusions come from “Operations of A Shared, Autonomous Electric Vehicle Fleet: Implications of Vehicle & Charging Infrastructure Decisions,” a study geared to fleet owners seeking to reduce costs.

The study is by Kara M. Kockelman, the E.P. Schoch professor of engineering at the University of Texas at Austin; T. Donna Chen, assistant professor, department of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Virginia; and Josiah P. Hanna, at the University of Texas at Austin.

Uber and other on-demand cab firms have made no secret they are looking to reduce their dependence on drivers. Meanwhile, Ford and other auto OEMs are expanding their driverless test research to speed development of the technology.

SAEVS MEANS SAVINGS

In their financial analysis, the authors considered such costs as vehicle purchase, maintenance and insurance, charging infrastructure cost, administration, gallon of gasoline vs. electric charge per kilowatt hour, and so on.

The authors then created a model geographic area for their car-sharing service.

They overlaid a 100 mile by 100 mile grid over the Austin metro area, and divided it into four zones – downtown, urban, suburban, and exurban. The grid was further broken down into 160,000 quarter mile by quarter mile cells.

Each zone had its own average trip generation rate, and average peak and off-peak travel times.

The many cost and trip variables led to the 42 to 49 cents per-mile range for operating a SAEV in a car-sharing service.

The authors contend that a SAEV equipped car-sharing service could charge 66 to 74 cents per occupied mile of travel.

That compares favorably to the 70 cents to $1.23 that Car2Go charges in Austin, and the equivalent $1.50 to $3.18 per-mile fee charged by Uber, according to the study.

Indeed, the SAEV cost is competitive with AAA’s 2014 estimate of 40 to 95 cents per-mile that it costs someone to operate their own vehicle.

MANAGING CHARGING SYSTEMS

There are several barriers to a SAEV system. First, fully autonomous cars aren’t available, and second the pushback against electric vehicles by consumers and fleet operators.

Many cite range anxiety, the fear that the vehicle will stop dead when its charge is depleted. Fleets have concerns about building a charging infrastructure, and managing the charge time for vehicles.

In response, the report put together cost comparisons when building such an infrastructure and found that it could be cheaper for a car-sharing fleet to operate driverless electric vehicles than comparable gas-powered cars.

Vehicles with driverless technology will be more expensive to purchase, though the operator will save on the driver’s compensation. No driver also means the vehicle could be in near-continuous operation, except when it is being charged.

A single SAEV with an 80-mile range could replace as many as 3.7 privately owned vehicles, if operators use a Level 2 charge that can take around 3-4 hours. A vehicle with a 200-mile range (think Tesla) could replace 5.5 vehicles when using a Level 2 charge.

It would be even more efficient to use a Level 3 charge, which can give an electric the equivalent of an 80 percent fill up in 30 minutes.

A SAEV with an 80-mile range using a Level 3 charge would replace 5.4 standard vehicles, while a single 200-mile range SAEV would replace 6.8 vehicles.

Managing charging systems for a fleet of SAEVs takes a toll however. This fleet could see an additional 7 to 14 percent more travel miles as the vehicles run empty between charge stations and passenger pick up spots.

It should be no surprise that Level 3 charge systems cost more than the Level 2 systems. But costs have been dropping, and could well be even cheaper when fully autonomous vehicles are widely available.

The authors note that using an inductive, or wireless, charging system could bring costs down further, though a wireless Level 3 is not now commercially available. Google has been testing a wireless-induction system in California, according to reports.

In a previous study, Kockelman found that 41 percent of American consumers would pay an average of $14,600 extra for technology that made their vehicle fully autonomous (See “40% of Consumers Would Pay Extra for Driverless Tech”).

Images by Chevrolet, Highways England.